356
WTNT41 KNHC 260233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 PM AST MON AUG 25 2025
FERNAND HAS LOST ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED, AND CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 45 KT, WHICH LIES NEAR THE
HIGH END OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY VALUE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 35 TO
40 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DUE TO SHARPLY COOLER WATERS, DRY AIR, AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR. FERNAND WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24
HOURS, IF NOT SOONER, AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO ITS
EAST AND A LARGE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL FERNAND
DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND LIES NEAR THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AND HCCA MODELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL FOR THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 36.1N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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