749
WTNT41 KNHC 260832
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2025
FERNAND CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED CYCLONE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF
DISSIPATING CONVECTION WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 TO 44 KT.
GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 040/12 KT. A SLIGHTLY FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, AND
LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AND HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AS SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND
SHIPS MID-LEVEL RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW 50 PERCENT. THE STORM IS ALSO
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INTO HIGHER WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
SPINS DOWN, AND FERNAND WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY 48 H AND DISSIPATE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 37.0N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page