952
WTPZ45 KNHC 260836
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025
JULIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT
WITH CURVED BANDING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A
SMALL INNER CORE, WHICH HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY, SCATTEROMETER MISSED TONIGHT GIVEN
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IT FELL WITHIN THE DATA GAP. THERE IS A
BIT OF A RANGE FROM SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THIS CYCLE BETWEEN 44 TO 65 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 55 KT.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
290/ 11 KT. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS AIDS ON THE RIGHT WITH GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND EMXI ON THE
LEFT.
JULIETTE SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
18-24 H , WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS WIND SHEAR ALSO INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 H. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS, AND SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TODAY, ALTHOUGH SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS NOT
ESTABLISHED, THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS THEN FORECAST BETWEEN 24-36
H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING BEYOND 36 H. JULIETTE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 60 H, BEFORE OPENING INTO A
TROUGH AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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