916
WTPZ45 KNHC 261433
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT GPM/GMI MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE CENTER, AND THE GPM IMAGE REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THE CYCLONE'S IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST, THERE'S STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT JULIETTE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY, AND A COUPLE OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS AS
WELL. BY WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE
JULIETTE TRAVERSES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOVES INTO A MORE INHIBITING SURROUNDING
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. JULIETTE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND RESEMBLES THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.
JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
320/9 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A GROWING WEAKNESS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page