611
WTNT41 KNHC 261438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2025
FERNAND HAS NOT PRODUCED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER SINCE
ABOUT 2 AM. BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FERNAND IS MOVING OVER
A COOL EDDY OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE GULF STREAM, WHICH
COULD EXPLAIN ITS LOSS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A WARM EDDY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND SHIPS SUGGESTS A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION, KEEPING FERNAND GOING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A
BIT LONGER. IN FACT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF SHOW THIS
REDEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FERNAND'S MAXIMUM WINDS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH, THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION NOT OCCURRING UNTIL 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH BY 48
HOURS, AND THAT IS WHEN DISSIPATION IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD, OR 040/11 KT. A CONTINUED
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL FERNAND DISSIPATES, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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