458
WTNT41 KNHC 262033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2025
AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING, THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR FERNAND'S CENTER, AND THAT INDEED HAS
HAPPENED. FERNAND HAS THEREFORE MAINTAINED TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS,
AND BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED WIND OF 30-35 KT, THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045/10 KT. AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS FERNAND BECOMES MORE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. IN THE SHORT TERM, FERNAND WILL BE MOVING OVER A RELATIVE
WARM EDDY OF THE GULF STREAM, WHILE ALSO REMAINING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW SHEAR. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS, AS WELL AS
THE HCCA GUIDANCE, SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS PREDICTED BY 36 HOURS, IF NOT
SOONER, WHEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVER COLDER WATERS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY THROUGH 48 HOURS, SO AN ADDITIONAL
FORECAST POINT WAS ADDED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SHOULD OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH BY 60 HOURS (THURSDAY NIGHT).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 38.1N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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