398
WTPZ45 KNHC 262034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE CENTER OF JULIETTE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA, AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. OVERALL, THE STRUCTURE
APPEARS SIMILAR TO, BUT SLIGHTLY DEGRADED COMPARED TO, THE SYSTEM'S
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 6 H AGO. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE, AND THE
LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 3.5 (55 KT). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT 24-30 H, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM BY HOUR 12, AND WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME ALONG ITS PATH.
JULIETTE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
12-24 H, BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COLDER WATER AND THROUGH DRIER AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 H, BUT LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER. BEYOND 36 H,
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS JULIETTE MOVES CLOSER TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING
SHEAR, ALONG WITH THE COLD SSTS AND DRY AIR, SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 2
DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND
DISSIPATING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWEST, OR 325/9 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
JULIETTE MOVES IN BETWEEN TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES, ONE LOCATED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE OTHER LOCATED WELL TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. JULIETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN, BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS SOME OF THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MODELS LIKE THE TCVE AND HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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