561
WTNT41 KNHC 270236
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2025
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR FERNAND'S CENTER HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS
UP TO 39 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON
THESE DATA.
FERNAND IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 50/10 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL, HCCA. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FERNAND WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS FERNAND GENERALLY STEADY
IN INTENSITY WHILE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW FERNAND BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY LATE THIS
WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 38.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 39.3N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 41.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 42.9N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 44.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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