372
WTPZ45 KNHC 270240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025
JULIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY,
BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED. MOST OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
IN A SMALL CLUSTER JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5/3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE
DPRINT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE STORM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TREK WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE
OF ABOUT 325/10 KT. JULIETTE IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. IN 48 HOURS,
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND IS
HEADED FOR MUCH COOLER WATERS. THIS, ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE DSHIPS, LGEM, AND HCCA NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FUTURE ENVIRONMENT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER THEN INDICATED HERE.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE OR ITS
REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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