984
WTPZ45 KNHC 270835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2025
JULIETTE STILL HAS A RELATIVELY HEALTHY PRESENTATION THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A SMALL, BUT SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. HOWEVER, THESE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
OCEAN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING, AND WE ALSO RECEIVED A HELPFUL METOP-C
ASCAT PASS AT 0451 UTC WHICH ONLY HAD A PEAK WIND RETRIEVAL OF 36
KT IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 45 KT THIS ADVISORY, ASSUMING SOME
SCATTEROMETER UNDERSAMPLING OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT
330/11 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A
LITTLE MORE RIGHTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE IS STEERED POLEWARD THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES VERTICALLY
SHALLOW, ITS FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT BECOMES
MORE STEERED BY THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THIS PART
OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST THIS CYCLE
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE, OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE
EASTWARD SHIFT AFTER JULIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
JULIETTE'S TROPICAL CYCLONE STORY IS FADING AS IT MOVES OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C WHICH COOL FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW, IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS, STRIPPING AWAY THE STORM'S
REMAINING CONVECTION BY THAT TIME. THUS, JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 H. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
ULTIMATELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
EVEN AS JULIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, SOME OF ITS MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED POLEWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WHICH COULD HELP TO
ENHANCE LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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