503
WTPZ45 KNHC 271435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2025
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT
JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SURFACE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB (40-50 KT) AND A
RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON ANALYSIS OF 48 KT YIELD AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
JULIETTE IS TRAVERSING A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
(LESS THAN 24 C) WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER, STABLE LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THESE NEGATIVE
CONTRIBUTIONS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN JULIETTE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HRS, IF NOT SOONER. AFTERWARD, JULIETTE
SHOULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY FRIDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE LGEM.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11
KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN ON THURSDAY EVENING, WHILE JULIETTE
MOVES FURTHER INTO A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., POTENTIALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
AND ENHANCING LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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