758
WTNT41 KNHC 271459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 AM AST WED AUG 27 2025
FERNAND'S CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH THE CIRCULATION ITSELF A BIT ELONGATED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ENCOMPASS A RATHER LARGE RANGE--FROM 30
KT TO ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT, PENDING
AN ASCAT PASS WHICH WE MAY NOT RECEIVE UNTIL AFTER THIS ADVISORY IS
RELEASED.
SINCE LAST EVENING, CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A STRONGER
INFLUENCE ON FERNAND'S MOTION COMPARED TO THE PREVAILING STEERING
FLOW. THE 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION HAS BEEN EASTWARD, OR 085 DEGREES
AT 10 KT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES LESSEN, THE TRACK
MODELS INSIST THAT FERNAND SHOULD RESUME AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST VERY SOON, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. FERNAND IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM LATER TODAY, WITH SSTS FALLING TO 23-24
DEGREES CELSIUS BY THIS EVENING. THESE COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE
FERNAND'S DEEP CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE, LARGELY DUE TO
THE SYSTEM'S INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. DISSIPATION--WHEN THE
CIRCULATION OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH--IS LIKELY IN 36-48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 38.4N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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