673
WTPZ45 KNHC 272036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2025
GOES-18 IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, AND THE CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
ARE GRADUALLY WARMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
ABOUT 70 N MI WIDE IN THE NE QUADRANT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CURRENTLY AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE A WIDER RANGE
(35-50 KT). A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED SEVERAL
34-36 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
JULIETTE IS MOVING OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24C, AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH WATER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 22C
IN 6-12 H. JULIETTE IS ALSO NOW REACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH A DRIER, STABLE LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL CAUSE
JULIETTE TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 H. AFTERWARD, JULIETTE SHOULD OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING
SHOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/12
KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 H WHILE JULIETTE
MOVES FURTHER INTO A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE ON
THURSDAY, A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED WHILE
BEING STEERED BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., POTENTIALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
AND ENHANCING LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 23.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.2N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 27.3N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 27.8N 120.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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