790
WTNT41 KNHC 272037
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 PM AST WED AUG 27 2025
FERNAND'S INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS CAUSED
THE CLOUD PATTERN TO LOOK MORE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
A BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SOME LEFTOVER
SHALLOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN A BAND WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
STILL, THE SYSTEM REMAINS NON FRONTAL AND IS HOLDING ONTO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT BASED ON
ASCAT-C DATA FROM AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, OR 070
DEGREES AT 13 KT. ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH FERNAND
NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE STORM IS NOW
PASSING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT 23
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 12 HOURS. GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THESE
COLDER WATERS, AND FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE TRANSITION, FERNAND IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS, EVEN AFTER IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND
DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 39.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 40.6N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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