232
WTPZ45 KNHC 280238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE’S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW
FULLY EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF A DIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH
HAS BEEN FADING QUICKLY UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A
DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C PASS
INDICATED PEAK WINDS NEAR 40 KT, CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AS JULIETTE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN INCREASING SHEAR, COOL
WATERS, AND A STABLE, DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
JULIETTE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/8 KT, INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AIDS. AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM, MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY BEND
LEFTWARD WHILE BECOMING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY
THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES,
POTENTIALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 24.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25.9N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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