307
WTNT41 KNHC 280239
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2025
THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME, WITH
ONLY SOME SHALLOW- TO MID-LEVEL TOPPED CONVECTION AND SOME ISOLATED
DEEPER CELLS IN A BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT, THE
CYCLONE LACKS ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED BY THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPS IN THE CIRCULATION, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO COOLER
OCEAN WATERS, FERNAND WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
THURSDAY. IN SPITE OF ITS UNIMPRESSIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE, RECENT
ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS SHOWED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 45 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FERNAND'S CIRCULATION. SOME
SLIGHT SPIN-DOWN IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS EVEN AFTER IT OPENS UP INTO
A TROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
FERNAND IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOTION NOW
AROUND 060/16 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FASTER IN
ABOUT THE SAME DIRECTION, WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, UNTIL
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 40.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 41.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0000Z 43.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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