210
WTPZ45 KNHC 280835
TCDEP5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2025
JULIETTE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND A DRY, STABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. A 0522 UTC ASCAT-B
PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS NEAR 30 KT, ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE LACK OF
CONVECTION, JULIETTE IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, AND THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM.
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 350/7 KT, INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY BEND LEFTWARD AS
IT BECOMES STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, POTENTIALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 25.4N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 28/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 26.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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