092
WTPZ41 KNHC 310834
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
0507 UTC ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 25 KT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 8 KT, OR 270/8 KT, STEERED BY
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD, MAINTAINING
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE THIS WEEK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MOIST
MID-LEVEL AIR, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORT STEADY
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY AROUND 60 HOURS (TUESDAY). THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM’S
TRACK NEAR THE 26 C ISOTHERM, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, COULD LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN TRENDS
CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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