832
WTPZ41 KNHC 311436
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR2 PASS SHOW A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE, ALONG WITH A
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER WHERE CLOUD TOPS
ARE NEAR -80 C. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS MORE THAN HALFWAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION, WHICH, ALONG WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND UP TO 3.0/45 KT FROM SAB,
SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM KIKO WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 8 KT, OR 270/8 KT, STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MOIST
MID-LEVEL AIR, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KIKO IS FORECAST TO
REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BY AROUND 48 HOURS (TUESDAY). THEREAFTER,
THE CYCLONE’S TRACK NEAR THE 26 C ISOTHERM, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, COULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ALSO, ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH COULD PLACE THE SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS AND FURTHER INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN TRENDS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 14.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page