210
WTPZ41 KNHC 312033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2025
KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS,
WITH A BROAD CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SAMPLING ISSUES
AT WORK SINCE THE CENTRAL CORE OF KIKO IS SMALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN DEFERENCE TO THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGEST THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED EAST-WEST WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD
SWIRLS PRESENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/8 KT. KIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN
120W-155W, AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO MOVE WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH
OF WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION, THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE FASTER UKMET/ECMWF
BEING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE SLOWER GFS BY 120 H. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK SPLITS THIS SPEED DIFFERENCE, AND IT LIES JUST
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH
OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GENERALLY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE
IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND 27C. AFTER
72 H, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIR MASS THAT
COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING DESPITE THE OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS 72 H OF STRENGTHENING
FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT 96 AND 120 H. THERE ARE
TWO UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST. FIRST, THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDICES OF THE SHIPS MODEL ARE NOTABLY ABOVE THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, AND THAT COMBINED WITH KIKO'S SMALL CORE
SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 72 H. SECOND, AS MENTIONED EARLIER ANY DEVIATION OF THE
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH COULD PLACE THE
SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WOULD SLOW OR STOP STRENGTHENING. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AND IT LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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