646
WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2025
KIKO IS GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ON ITS SOUTH SIDE. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND
45 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED
UPWARD TO 40 KT.
KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KT. AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD
KEEP KIKO ON A WESTWARD, OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST,
PATH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, BUT THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEEDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE FASTER END OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND EMXI MODELS.
KIKO IS LIKELY TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.
WHILE THE WIND SHEAR AROUND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE SURROUNDING MOISTURE AND SSTS ALONG
ITS FORECAST TRACK ARE JUST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT VARY FROM KIKO REMAINING A TROPICAL STORM TO BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. SINCE KIKO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE, IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORM SHOULD STRENGTHEN STEADILY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KIKO IS CURRENTLY A COMPACT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GET
LARGER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
SMALLER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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