021
WTPZ41 KNHC 012040
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST MON SEP 01 2025
KIKO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING NOTED
IN 1-MINUTE GOES-18 IMAGERY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 55-65 KT WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE DATA AND IMPROVING APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED, WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 255/6 KT. A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KIKO'S NORTH SHOULD CAUSE THIS GENERAL MOTION
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, KIKO SHOULD
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST DUE TO ITS POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS KIKO STARTS TO REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE. THERE IS VERY LARGE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, MEANING THAT THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN KIKO'S FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A BIT TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT NOT AS SLOW AS MOST OF THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODELS. THIS LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
12Z ECMWF MODEL.
RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
KIKO TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF KIKO
WERE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK, IT COULD ENCOUNTER
STRONGER SHEAR IN 1-2 DAYS, AS THE MODELS SHOW STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SOUTH OF ABOUT 13N LATITUDE. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT
COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE PEAK FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED A BIT TO SHOW A PEAK OF 95 KT IN 60-72
HOURS. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HCCA AND HIGH RESOLUTION
HURRICANE MODELS, SOME OF WHICH BRING KIKO TO MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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