178
AXPZ20 KNHC 012103
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM KIKO:
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 126.7W AT 01/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 15 FT WITHIN 30 NM ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
13N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
KIKO WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
TUESDAY, THEN PEAK NEAR 95 KT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BY FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
LESS THAN 150 MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE
STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN COULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO AND
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WATERS EXTENDING TOWARD AS WELL AS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS OFF SW MEXICO WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN MOVING
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE, MENTIONED ABOVE, IS NEAR 103W/104W,
FROM 07N NORTHWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N94W TO 16.5N103.5W
TO 14N120W, THEN RESUMES FROM 12N128W TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
113W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF SW MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 240
NM OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO,
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
GUSTY AND WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE OVER THESE WATERS NEAR
THE CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND MICHOACAN, WHERE SEAS ARE
6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND GENTLE WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA
EUGENIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT
RANGE, REACHING 4 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LESS THAN 150 MILES OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN COULD TURN NORTHWARD
AND APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS OFF
SW MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN MOVING TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NW TO N WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
90W, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL. SW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICAN WATERS, WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE, THEN INCREASE MODESTLY WED
AND THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TUE, REACHING THE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM KIKO.
ASIDE FROM T.S. KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N
OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N135W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS OF KIKO, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
120W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF 10N AND E OF 120W. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 10N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND
SW SWELL S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM KIKO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 13.7N 127.7W TUE MORNING, MOVE TO 13.6N 128.9W TUE
AFTERNOON, 13.6N 130.3W WED MORNING, 13.6N 131.7W WED AFTERNOON,
13.8N 133.2W THU MORNING, AND 13.9N 134.8W THU AFTERNOON. KIKO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 14.3N 138.1W
FRI AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. S TO SW SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N
WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
AL
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