515
WTPZ41 KNHC 020249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST MON SEP 01 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF ESTABLISHING A MORE WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, WITH
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE EVIDENT AT TIMES IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.5/55 KT AND 4.0/65 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 45 AND 57 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KT.
KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265 DEGREES, AT 6 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS — NEARLY 500 N MI BY 120 HOURS — WITH THE
CMC THE FARTHEST EAST, THE UKMET THE FARTHEST WEST, AND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FALLING IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS
AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C AND INFLUENCED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH DAY 5. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, REMAINING BETWEEN 50 AND 60
PERCENT AND TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH DAY 5. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF KIKO AND PROXIMITY TO COOLER WATERS TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER,
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE AND HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN ACCORDINGLY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER
THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH A BLEND OF THE HCCA/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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