738
AXPZ20 KNHC 020916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT
02/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 22 FT WITHIN 15 NM ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 15 NM NORTH AND 45 NM SOUTH OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN
125W AND 129W. KIKO WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR 95 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT, BEFORE WEAKENING FRI, AND CROSSING 140W AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT
02/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SEAS HAVE REACHED NEAR 12 FT WITHIN
30 NM NE OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W, WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE
FROM 14.5N TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W,
AND AFFECTING THE COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SOUTHERN SINALOA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND
REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES
OF SW AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATER IN THE
WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
PENINSULA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TWELVE-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN ALONG 86W,
FROM 06N NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W,
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EAST OF 90W AND THE ADJACENT SW
CARIBBEAN.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N83W TO 08.5N93W TO
14.5N104W, THEN RESUMES FROM 15N110W TO 15.5N123W, THEN RESUMES
AGAIN FROM 12N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 83W, FROM 08N
TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 122W, AND FROM 075N TO 10.5N BETWEEN
128W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E OFF SW MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED FROM 16N NORTHWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
FROM MICHOACAN TO SOUTHERN SINALOA, ASSOCIATED T.D TWELVE-E.
STRONG GUSTY AND WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE SEEN
ACROSS THESE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THIS NEW T.D. AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND CABO CORRIENTES WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND GENTLE WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL
ACROSS THESE WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE, REACHING 4 FT
AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SINALOA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. TWELVE-E IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 18.6N 108.5W AS A
TROPICAL STORM MIDDAY TUE, REACH NEAR 20.1N 110.5W MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, NEAR 21.2N 112.3W MIDDAY WED, NEAR 23.2N 114.2W MIDDAY
THU, THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR 24.2N 114.3W MIDNIGHT THU, AND
NEAR 26.3N 113.5W MIDNIGHT FRI. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NW OF THE AREA THROUGH MID- WEEK, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THU AS TWELVE-E APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION
OFFSHORE TO 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN,
WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN EL SALVADOR AND SE GUATEMALA HAVE ENDED.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE, THEN INCREASE MODESTLY WED AND
THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO
FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, ANCHORED BY A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD OF 30N BETWEEN
125W AND 145W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS OF KIKO, MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE N OF 10N AND E OF 120W. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 10N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 12N
BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND REACH NEAR 13.8N 128.6W MIDDAY TUE, MOVE TO 13.8N
129.6W MIDNIGHT TUE, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY,
REACHING NEAR 13.8N 131.8W MIDNIGHT WED, NEAR 14.2N 134.5W
MIDNIGHT THU, AND NEAR 15.0N 137.4W MIDNIGHT FRI BEFORE CROSSING
140W AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS SAT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. S TO SW
SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page