616
WTPZ41 KNHC 021439
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 AM HST TUE SEP 02 2025
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, KIKO'S EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON NIGHTTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY, AND AT TIMES IT HAS ALSO SHOWED UP IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE SMALL HURRICANE IS CLEARLY INTENSIFYING. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 77-90 KT,
WHILE THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE
60-74 KT RANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT REPRESENTS
AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES.
KIKO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD, OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
MAIN STEERING FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF KIKO. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE, BUT NOT
AS MUCH SPREAD AS YESTERDAY, AND THE DAY 5 POSITIONS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL DAY 5 POSITION IS
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THOSE MODELS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS.
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, KIKO SHOULD REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
OF 10-15 KT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR IS A BIT DRY AND STABLE, AND
THIS MIGHT PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, STEADY
STRENGTHENING STILL APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY DAY
4, KIKO WILL REACH SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES
INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT, AND IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH DAY 3. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN
4-5 DAYS WHEN KIKO REACHES THE COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR, BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL MAINTAINS KIKO AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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