890
AXPZ20 KNHC 021525
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 22 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 129W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. KIKO WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
BY THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR
100 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, BEFORE WEAKENING FRI. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
WATERS SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N
107.9W AT 02/1500 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 12 FT WITHIN
30 NM NE OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 104W
AND 112W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES
OF SW AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATER IN THE
WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS AND
PENINSULA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 87W/88W FROM 06N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N91W TO 13N102W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 16N108W TO 15N124W, AND THEN RESUMES AGAIN
FROM 12N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 02N E OF 82W, FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W, FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W, AND
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA OFF SW MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND CABO CORRIENTES WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND GENTLE WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL
ACROSS THESE WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE, REACHING 4 FT
AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL MOVE TO 19.4N
109.5W THIS EVENING, 20.7N 111.3W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 21.9N 112.7W WED EVENING, 23.0N 113.8W THU
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.9N 114.2W THU
EVENING, AND 24.9N 114.1W FRI MORNING. LORENA WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR 26.8N 113.2W EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA THROUGH MID- WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THU AS LORENA APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION
OFFSHORE TO 9W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA,
WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY, THEN INCREASE MODESTLY WED AND THU.
MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH
SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N. OUTSIDE THE WINDS OF KIKO, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 10N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 12N BETWEEN
100W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO IS NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 8 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987
MB. KIKO WILL MOVE TO 13.8N 129.1W THIS EVENING, 13.8N 130.2W WED
MORNING, 13.8N 131.3W WED EVENING, 13.9N 132.6W THU MORNING,
14.1N 134.0W THU EVENING, AND 14.4N 135.4W FRI MORNING. KIKO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.3N 138.4W
EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. S TO SW SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N
WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
AL
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