024
AXPZ20 KNHC 022121
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 128.9W AT 02/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 26 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. KIKO WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR
100 KT WED THROUGH THU NIGHT, BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN FRI. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
WATERS SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 109.0W AT 02/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 14 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO
24N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THU
THROUGH FRI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES OF SW AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH
MID-WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE WATERS AND PENINSULA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W FROM 06N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N92W TO 14N122W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N131W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05N E OF 86W, FROM
06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
132W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA OFF SW MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
OFF CABO CORRIENTES WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
AND GENTLE WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THESE
WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE, REACHING 4 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL MOVE TO 20.6N
110.4W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.8N 112.0W
WED AFTERNOON, 22.9N 113.1W THU MORNING, 24.1N 113.8W THU
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.1N 113.8W FRI
MORNING, AND 26.2N 113.3W FRI AFTERNOON. LORENA WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 28.4N 111.8W SAT
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID- WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH WED
BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU AS LORENA
APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH E GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION
OFFSHORE TO 9W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA,
WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY WED AND THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N. OUTSIDE THE WINDS OF KIKO, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 10N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 13.8N 129.8W WED
MORNING, 13.8N 131.0W WED AFTERNOON, 13.9N 132.2W THU MORNING,
14.1N 133.6W THU AFTERNOON, 14.2N 135.2W FRI MORNING, AND 14.5N
136.5W FRI AFTERNOON. KIKO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 15.5N 139.5W SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. S TO SW
SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
AL
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