824
AXPZ20 KNHC 030305
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 129.3W AT 03/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 30 FT WITHIN 30 NM NORTH OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 128.5W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.
KIKO WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING, AND CROSS 140W AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY NEAR 105 KT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO
WEAKEN FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT WITHIN 30 NM NE OF
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 109W AND 110.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THU THROUGH FRI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES OF SW AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS AND PENINSULA OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W FROM 06N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N73.5W TO 09.5N99W TO 14.5N109W
TO 16N121W, THEN RESUMES FROM 12N133W TO BEYOND 10.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF
05N E OF 86.5W, FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W, FROM 07N
TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W, FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 105W AND
123W, AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA OFF SW MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
OFF CABO CORRIENTES WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
AND GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR, BECOMING MODERATE
NE TO N WINDS SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN
THE 1-3 FT RANGE, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 21.2N 111.1W WED MORNING AS
A HURRICANE, NEAR 22.3N 112.6W LATE WED AFTERNOON, NEAR 23.4N
113.5W THU MORNING, NEAR 24.6N 113.9W LATE THU AFTERNOON, MOVE
INTO BAJA SUR AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.6N 113.8W
FRI MORNING, AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26.6N
113.3W LATE FRI AFTERNOON. LORENA IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA THROUGH MID- WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THU AS LORENA APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE E GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
92W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA, WITH SEAS IN
THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY WED AND THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 38N135W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
10N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 10N. SEAS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER, REACHING NEAR 13.8N 130.5W WED MORNING,
NEAR 13.8N 131.9W LATE WED AFTERNOON, NEAR 13.9N 133.4W THU
MORNING AS A 105 KT HURRICANE, NEAR 14.4N 136.9W FRI MORNING,
AND NEAR 14.8N 138.5W LATE FRI AFTERNOON. KIKO WILL THEN WEAKEN
MODESTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 16.1N 141.4W LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. S TO SW SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N WILL SUPPORT
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
STRIPLING
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