841
WTPZ41 KNHC 030900
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 02 2025
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO REMAINED EMBEDDED IN A LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH ONLY
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES NOW SHOWING A MORE WELL-DEFINED
EYE DEVELOPING SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE BOTH 5.0/90 KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 83 AND 92 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BASED ON THESE DATA AND LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CYCLE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KT.
KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 6 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY DAY
3 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII BEGINS TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. THERE REMAINS SOME ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS, PARTICULARLY BEYOND 24 HOURS, WITH
SOME CROSS TRACK SPREAD ALSO NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
RESULTING FROM DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KIKO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C AND INFLUENCED BY MOST
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH DAY 3. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN OPTIMAL,
HOVERING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT THROUGH 60 HOURS, THEN TRENDING
BELOW 50 PERCENT BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. DESPITE THE DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS, THE LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN KIKO AS A STRONG HURRICANE, WITH THE
CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
AT THAT STATUS THROUGH DAY 3. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMMETING BELOW 40
PERCENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING, HOWEVER,
KIKO IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE,
AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A BLEND OF THE FSSE/HCCA INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 130.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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