991
AXPZ20 KNHC 030936 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 3 2025
CORRECTION TO LORENA SEAS
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 129.53W AT 03/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAINS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 30 FT WITHIN 20 NM NORTH OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 128.5W AND 132W. KIKO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC,AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, AND CROSS 140W AND MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY NEAR 105 KT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO
WEAKEN FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE LORENA:
NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT
03/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 80 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 23 FT WITHIN 20 NM NE OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.5.
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND APPROACH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND CROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES OF SW AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95W FROM 06N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74.5W TO 09N78W TO 09.5N97W
TO 14.5N109W TO 16N122W, THEN RESUMES FROM 12.5N133W TO BEYOND
10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 05N E OF 87W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 93.5W
AND 100W, FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 123W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 137W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON NEWLY
UPGRADE HURRICANE LORENA SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
OFF CABO CORRIENTES TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS, WHERE
SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT AND BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN RECENT HOURS TO BAJA SUR AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TO THE EAST AND WEST. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW
OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER BAJA NORTE. THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE N WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL SOUTHWARD AND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, AS
LORENA IS PASSING OFF TO THE NE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS, EXCEPT 6 TO 9 FT FROM
SOUTHERN BAJA SUR TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF LORENA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT
RANGE, REACHING 6 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND COASTAL OAXACA, ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE LORENA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 22.1N 111.7W MIDDAY WED,
NEAR 23.2N 113W MIDNIGHT WED, NEAR 24.2N 113.7W MIDDAY THU,
THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH BAJA SUR NEAR 25.3N
113.9W MIDNIGHT THU, REACH THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26.4N 113.7W
MIDDAY FRI AS A TROPICAL STORM, THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27.4N 113.3W MIDNIGHT
FRI. THE REMNANTS OF LORENA SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI, WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE N WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE
WEAKENING NEAR THE COAST THU THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT AS LORENA APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC
COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE E GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
94W, BEHIND THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS THERE ARE 4-6 FT.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS
PREVAIL. SW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA, WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 7 FT
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY WED AND THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH
THU. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 34N133W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 08N AND 22N AND WEST OF 125W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND
SW SWELL S OF 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER, REACHING NEAR 13.8N 131.2W MIDDAY WED,
NEAR 13.9N 132.6W MIDNIGHT WED AS A 105 KT HURRICANE, NEAR 14.0N
134.2W MIDDAY THU, NEAR 14.5N 137.4W MIDDAY FRI, THEN WEAKEN
MODESTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.0N 139.0W MIDNIGHT FRI, CROSSING
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON SAT. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE TRADE
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING INTO
SAT. S TO SW SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N WILL SUPPORT
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
STRIPLING
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