579
WTPZ41 KNHC 031451
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST WED SEP 03 2025
KIKO IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE WITH AN EYE CLEARING
OUT OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING
THE EYE BEING SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE BOTH 5.0/90 KT AT 12Z BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE STRUCTURE
HAS IMPROVED ON SATELLITE WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE WAS 99
KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES.
KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY DAY
3 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII ERODES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE WAS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 3. AFTER THAT TIME, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPREAD IN BOTH THE ALONG- AND
CROSS-TRACK DIRECTIONS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE HCCA AND GDMI MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. KIKO'S INTENSITY WILL THEREFORE LIKELY
BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. GIVEN ITS CURRENT
SINGLE EYE-WALL STRUCTURE SEEN ON EARLIER AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
KIKO APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY MORE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE CLOSEST TO THE HAFS-A AND HAFS-B FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS AND AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER BANN
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