869
AXPZ20 KNHC 031524
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE STORM KIKO:
HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W AT 03/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 30 FT WITHIN 20 NM NORTH OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 129W AND 131.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W. KIKO WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, CROSSING 140W AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN SAT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT THU
THROUGH FRI, BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE LORENA:
HURRICANE LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85
KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 23 FT WITHIN 20 NM NE OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. LORENA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN
IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND CROSS OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
FRI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL ZONES OF SW AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR, MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS MEXICO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 96W FROM 06N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N99W TO 14N126W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W
AND 89W, FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W, AND FROM 07N TO
14N BETWEEN 103W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON HURRICANE
LORENA SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
OFF CABO CORRIENTES TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT AND BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IMPACTING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST
AND WEST. OUTSIDE OF WINDS NEAR LORENA, MODERATE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS, EXCEPT 6 TO 9 FT FROM
SOUTHERN BAJA SUR TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF LORENA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE, REACHING 7 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF
THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE LORENA WILL MOVE TO 23.4N 112.7W
THIS EVENING, 24.5N 113.7W THU MORNING, 25.6N 113.9W THU EVENING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 26.4N 113.9W FRI MORNING, 27.5N
113.5W FRI EVENING, AND 28.4N 112.8W SAT MORNING. LORENA WILL
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 30.4N 110.6W EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE N WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR THE
COAST THU THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AS LORENA APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO
REGION OFFSHORE TO 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA, WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT TO 7 FT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY TODAY AND THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THU.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 36N133W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 08N AND 22N AND WEST OF 127W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 14N
BETWEEN 105W AND 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 13.9N 131.8W THIS
EVENING, 14.0N 133.4W THU MORNING, 14.2N 135.0W THU EVENING,
14.6N 136.9W FRI MORNING, 14.8N 138.8W FRI EVENING, AND CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 15.2N 140.6W SAT MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING INTO SAT. S TO SW SWELL OVER
THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
AL
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