685
AXPZ20 KNHC 032105
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO:
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO HAS REACHED CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR
30 FT WITHIN 20 NM NORTH OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 130.5W AND
133.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W. KIKO WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
CROSSING 140W AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT. KIKO
IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR 125 KT TONIGHT, BEFORE
STARTING TO WEAKEN THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE LORENA:
HURRICANE LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85
KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 23 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
27N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE AND CROSS OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI, THEN INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 97W FROM 06N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 14N126W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N133W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W
AND 91W, FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W, AND FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON HURRICANE
LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL
OFF CABO CORRIENTES TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS,
WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST AND WEST.
OUTSIDE OF WINDS NEAR LORENA, MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL
ACROSS THESE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE,
REACHING 8 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE LORENA WILL MOVE TO 23.6N 113.4W THU
MORNING, 24.8N 113.9W THU AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 26.0N 113.8W FRI MORNING, 27.2N 113.3W FRI AFTERNOON, 28.4N
112.5W SAT MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 29.3N 111.8W SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS
WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST THU THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS LORENA APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC
COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL. SW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA, WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 7 FT
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THU. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THU.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 36N133W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 08N AND 20N AND WEST OF 127W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF 14N BETWEEN
100W AND 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.0N 132.8W THU
MORNING, 14.0N 134.4W THU AFTERNOON, 14.2N 136.1W FRI MORNING,
14.5N 137.8W FRI AFTERNOON, 14.9N 139.5W SAT MORNING, AND CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NEAR 15.6N 141.5W SAT AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING INTO SAT. S TO SW SWELL OVER
WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
AL
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