022
WTPZ41 KNHC 040253
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST WED SEP 03 2025
KIKO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A VERY COLD RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -85C. THE MOST
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 6.5/127 KT RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 119 AND 132 KT DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265 DEGREES, AT 8 KT.
THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH
THIS GENERAL MOTION THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS SOME ALONG-TRACK
AND CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS, ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD
HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS NEARLY ON TOP OF, BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C AND INFLUENCED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 60 TO 72 HOURS. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN
OPTIMAL, HOVERING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT BY DAY 3. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, THE LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN KIKO AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH DAY 3. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THIS TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMMETING
BELOW 40 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY AND
EVENTUALLY RAPID WEAKENING OF KIKO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. KIKO WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ALONG ITS APPROACH, WHICH CAN SLOW THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE HIGHER END OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH DAY 5,
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 132.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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