543
WTPZ41 KNHC 040852
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST WED SEP 03 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS DEGRADED SOME SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE EYE NOW MOSTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING, IT IS
LIKELY THAT KIKO IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AT THE
MOMENT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 6.5/127 KT
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
RANGED BETWEEN 111 AND 132 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 125
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND KIKO REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.
KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265 DEGREES, AT 7 KT.
THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII BEGINS
TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION THEN CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS
SOME ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS,
ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C AND INFLUENCED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN OPTIMAL,
HOVERING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT BY 60 HOURS. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, THE LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN KIKO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH DAY 3. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THIS TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMMETING
BELOW 40 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY AND
EVENTUALLY RAPID WEAKENING OF KIKO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. KIKO WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG ITS APPROACH, WHICH
CAN SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY
AIDS THROUGH DAY 5, AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 133.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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