488
AXPZ20 KNHC 040938
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0840 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO:
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO REMAINS AT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 133.0W AT 04/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED REMAINS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING
NEAR 38 FT WITHIN 20 NM NORTH OF CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY
TONIGHT SHOWS THAT AN EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE WITH KIKO.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 131.5W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. KIKO HAS
LIKELY REACHED NEAR PEAK INTENSITY, AND WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MIDDAY FRI, WEAKENING VERY SLIGHTLY WHILE
CROSSING 140W AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT. KIKO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND LATE FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE LORENA:
HURRICANE LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 113.7W AT 04/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85
KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 24 FT WITHIN 20 NM NE OF
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 24N
TO 26.5N BETWEEN 112W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 107.5W AND 115W,
AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. LORENA IS MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS MOTION WILL TAKE
LORENA PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
APPROACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND MOVE INTO SONORA
TODAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 99W FROM 07N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 09.5N93W TO 13.5N112W
TO 18N119W, THEN RESUMES FROM 13N135W TO BEYOND 11.5N140W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 13N EAST OF 93W, FROM 07.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN
94.5W AND 104W, AND FROM 08.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON HURRICANE
LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS EXTEND ALONG
THE COAST AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM JUST S OF CABO SAN LUCAS
TO JUST N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 12 FT. BANDS
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST AND WATERS
BETWEEN LORENA AND THE BAJA COAST FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FROM
BAJA SUR TO 18N, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. SEAS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 7 FT THERE. OUTSIDE OF THESE WINDS,
MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE INSIDE THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST,
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO TEHUANTEPEC. TO THE NORTH, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE AREA, PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
BAJA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE LORENA HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY SAT. LORENA IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 24.7N 114.2W MIDDAY THU AS A TROPICAL
STORM, REACH NEAR 25.4N 114.3W MIDNIGHT THU, REACH NEAR 26.1N
113.9W MIDDAY FRI, REACH THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26.7N 113.5W
MIDNIGHT FRI AS A REMNANT LOW, THEN MOVE N-NE ACROSS BAJA AND
WEAKEN FURTHER SAT THROUGH SUN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS WILL
WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST THU THROUGH FRI, BECOMING GENTLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRI AS LORENA
APPROACHES THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
88W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL. NEW SW SWELL IS ENTERING THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE, EXCEPT
TO 7 TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N132W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 12N AND 23N AND WEST OF 127W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-7 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF
14N BETWEEN 94W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE KIKO HAS LIKELY
PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH MINOR
CHANGES IN STRENGTH THROUGH FRI. KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
13.9N 134.1W MIDDAY THU, NEAR 14.1N 135.8W MIDNIGHT THU, NEAR
NEAR 15.0N 139.1W MIDNIGHT FRI, TO NEAR 15.7N 140.9W MIDDAY SAT
MORNING, CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. ELSEWHERE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THU,
WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS,
THEN WEAKENING FRI NIGHT AND SAT. S TO SW SWELL OVER WILL
SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page