258
WTPZ32 KNHC 041437
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
800 AM MST THU SEP 04 2025
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 114.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH
OF PUERTO CORTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA
EUGENIA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE IT WEAKENS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW NEAR OR
TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FAR
SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICO, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN
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