641
AXPZ20 KNHC 041521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO:
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 38 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 132.5W AND 135.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO
17N BETWEEN 131W AND 136W. KIKO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, BUT IS
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REINTENSIFY TO 125 KT FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND MOVE INTO
THE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N
114.2W AT 04/1500 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 20
FT WITHIN 20 NM NE OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
28N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W, AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COASTS
AND COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. LORENA IS MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THEN WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BECOMING A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 100W FROM 07N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 15N116W TO 14N128W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N EAST OF 95W, FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W
AND 106W, AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 2-5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL MOVE TO 24.7N
114.5W THIS EVENING, 25.3N 114.5W FRI MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.8N 114.2W FRI EVENING. LORENA WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS WILL WEAKEN
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRI, BECOMING GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
91W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL IS HELPING FOR SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT TO 7 TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N134W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND WEST OF 129W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-7 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, DANGEROUS HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 13.9N
134.9W THIS EVENING, 14.3N 136.6W FRI MORNING, 14.7N 138.3W FRI
EVENING, CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NEAR 15.3N
140.1W SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING FRI NIGHT AND SAT. S
TO SW SWELL OVER WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 95W
AND 120W.
AL
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