531
WTPZ41 KNHC 042056
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM HST THU SEP 04 2025
RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KIKO'S PRESENTATION IS
IMPROVING AS THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) PROCESS
IS LIKELY IN ITS FINAL STAGES OF CONCLUDING, WITH THE EYE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR OUT. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
T6.0/115 KT, WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ONLY STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR NOW WILL REMAIN 115
KNOTS.
NOW THAT KIKO IS COMPLETING ITS EWRC, SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAINING BETWEEN 27-28 C WITH MODEST
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. PREVIOUS FORECASTS FROM THE INTERPOLATED
INTENSITY AIDS WERE BELOW THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. HOWEVER, THIS
AREA OF THE PACIFIC HAS HISTORICALLY HAD A LOW BIAS WHEN IT COMES TO
THE INTENSITY FORECASTS WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONES DEVELOP A MORE
ANNULAR STRUCTURE, WHICH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR.
AS A RESULT, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED OVER THE
FIRST 72 HOURS, ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS,
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES QUICKLY, AND THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER SUB-26 C SSTS. THIS SHOULD HASTEN WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST, WHICH FALLS BACK IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS.
KIKO WILL RIDE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LEADING TO A CONTINUED WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
A FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY TO SETTLE BETWEEN 8-12 KTS OVER THIS
TIME FRAME. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS, WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS IT
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS ERODES THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND JUST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 134.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page