597
AXPZ20 KNHC 042107
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO:
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 134.6W AT 04/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 38 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 133.5W AND 135.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
16N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. KIKO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 125
KT FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, AND MOVE INTO THE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 114.8W AT 04/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 18 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 109W AND
116W. LORENA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO.
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 101W FROM 07N NORTHWARD INTO
MEXICO, MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 15N115W TO
14N128W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 93W, FROM 06N TO 15N
BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 2-5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL MOVE TO 25.0N
114.9W FRI MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.4N 114.8W
FRI AFTERNOON. LORENA WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WATERS WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH FRI, BECOMING GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BY FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
91W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL IS HELPING FOR SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FT
RANGE N OF 05N, AND 7 TO 8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS S OF
05N EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N134W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND WEST OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-7 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, DANGEROUS HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.1N
135.9W FRI MORNING, 14.5N 137.6W FRI AFTERNOON, 15.0N 139.5W SAT
MORNING, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NEAR 15.7N 141.4W
SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING FRI NIGHT AND SAT. S TO SW
SWELL OVER WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND
120W.
AL
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