184
WTPZ41 KNHC 050256
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST THU SEP 04 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE ONCE WARM AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE EYE,
NOW OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OF -65 TO -80C. GIVEN THE MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE
CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING, IT IS LIKELY THAT KIKO IS ONCE AGAIN
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0/115 KT
AND 5.5/102 KT RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 101 AND 117 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE
DEGRADATION IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND KIKO IS NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE.
KIKO IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST, OR 275 DEGREES, AT 8 KT. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY, AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS ERODED BY DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII.
THIS GENERAL MOTION ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS KIKO MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 60
HOURS, AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 5, FOLLOWING THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AID, AND IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HCCA AND FSSE CONSENSUS AIDS.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WHILE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IN A
SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN OPTIMAL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE DRY
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, THE MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, PROVIDED THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH IS LIKELY ONGOING, COMPLETES.
BEYOND 24 HOURS THROUGH DAY 3, KIKO WILL MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS OF 26 TO 27C AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 50 PERCENT. DESPITE VERY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, KIKO WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 26C, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RAMPING UP TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY DAY 5, WHILE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO PLUMMETS BELOW 40 PERCENT. THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING OF KIKO AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY CYCLE, BUT REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH DAY 3 DUE TO THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR KIKO TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST THEN TRENDS CLOSER TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID
HCCA BY DAYS 4 AND 5, WITH KIKO FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY
DAY 5 AS IT NEARS THE EASTERN END OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 13.9N 135.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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