839
AXPZ20 KNHC 050408
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO:
MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 135.4W AT 05/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135
KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 32 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 133W AND 139W. KIKO
WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY, WITH THIS MOTION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO
COULD BEGIN REACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM LORENA:
TROPICAL STORM LORENA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 13 FT. CONVECTION FROM LORENA
IS SHEARED TO THE NE OF ITS CENTER AND LIES MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LORENA WILL UNDERGO A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 102W FROM 07N TO 16N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 95W AND 112W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 14N104W THEN RESUMES SW
OF LORENA FROM 17N115W TO 15N129W THEN RESUMES SW OF KIKO FROM
12N137W AND BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N E OF 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 2-5 FT PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LORENA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.0N
115.3W FRI MORNING, MOVE TO 25.3N 115.4W FRI EVENING, 25.7N
115.8W SAT MORNING, 26.1N 116.6W SAT EVENING, 26.5N 117.6W SUN
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF WILL
DIMINISH FRI EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AS WELL AS THE S AND SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS EXTEND FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO
91W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL. SW SWELL IS HELPING FOR SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FT
RANGE N OF 05N, AND 7 TO 8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS S OF
05N EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF
20N, CENTERED ON A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N137W. OUTSIDE THE WINDS
OF KIKO, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND WEST OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 12N. SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-7 FT RANGE, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, DANGEROUS HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.2N
136.6W FRI MORNING, 14.7N 138.5W FRI EVENING, 15.3N 140.4W SAT
MORNING, 16.0N 142.2W SAT EVENING, 16.7N 144.2W SUN MORNING, AND
17.6N 146.2W SUN EVENING. KIKO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES NEAR 19.3N 150.3W LATE MON. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THU, WITH MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS, THEN WEAKENING
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. S TO SW SWELL OVER WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.
RAMOS
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