649
WTPZ41 KNHC 050859
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST THU SEP 04 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS SLOWLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING, WITH THE EYE REMAINING MOSTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -65 TO -80C. A TIMELY
05/0313Z WSFM MICROWAVE PASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF KIKO, WITH THE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING HINTS THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING AS PART OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
WHICH IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING AT THE MOMENT. THE MOST RECENT
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO LEND CREDENCE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH AN EYE BEGINNING
TO RE-DEVELOP AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING DEVELOPING AROUND IT. THE
MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 5.5/102 KT RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE
OBJECTIVE AIDT AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN
98 AND 115 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WITH KIKO REMAINING A
STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 8 KT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY, AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS ERODED BY DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII.
THIS GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS KIKO MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
DAY 3 DUE TO A DELAY IN KIKO’S WEST-NORTHWEST TURN, THEN VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCE AND EMXI AIDS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE HCCA
AND FSSE CONSENSUS.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WHILE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A DRIER THAN OPTIMAL MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS KIKO WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH, THE OTHER FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION, PROVIDED THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH
IS LIKELY ONGOING, COMPLETES. FROM 24 HOURS TO 60 HOURS, KIKO WILL
MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS OF 26 TO 27C AND INTO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 50 PERCENT. THESE
LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, DESPITE THE CONTINUED VERY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AND CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5, THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 26C, WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RAMPING UP STEADILY TO MORE
THAN 30 KT BY DAY 5, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PLUMMET BELOW 40
PERCENT. THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
WEAKENING OF KIKO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CYCLE, BUT REMAINS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 60 HOURS, DUE TO THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR KIKO TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEN TRENDS CLOSER MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ENVELOP BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, WITH KIKO FORECAST TO BE A
TROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5 AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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