948
AXPZ20 KNHC 051002
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE KIKO: HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 136.2W AT
05/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 33 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 133W AND
139W. KIKO WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH THIS MOTION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO
COULD BEGIN REACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST KIKO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA: POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA IS
CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 0 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE
ESTIMATED NEAR 9 FT. CONVECTION FROM LORENA IS SHEARED TO THE
NE OF ITS CENTER AND LIES MAINLY OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LORENA WILL UNDERGO A SLOW
NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE REMNANT LOW OF
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED
BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LORENA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 16N WITH AXIS NEAR 104W,
WHICH IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 17N BETWEEN 91W AND 114W.
THERE IS A 1012 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CENTERED NEAR
12N104W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 14N105W THEN RESUMES
SW OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FROM 19N115W TO 14N121W TO
15N130W THEN RESUMES SW OF KIKO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N
TO 13N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 16N BETWEEN 109W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
OUTSIDE OF LORENA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA AND S OF CABO SAN LAZARO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
TO 6 FT. THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF LORENA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND SLIGHT WINDS
N OF 28N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LORENA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
24.7N 115.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 25.1N 115.2W SAT MORNING, 25.4N
115.8W SAT AFTERNOON, 25.8N 116.7W SUN MORNING, 26.1N 117.7W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH SE TO S
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS THIS EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AS WELL AS THE
S AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE MON. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE ALSO MODERATE IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE,
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM COASTAL
COLOMBIA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA N OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N136W COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 123W. OUTSIDE
THE WINDS OF KIKO, THE RIDGE SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103W IS SUPPORTING FRESH SW WINDS
S OF THE MONSOON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT PER RECENT
ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.2N 137.4W THIS AFTERNOON,
14.7N 139.3W SAT MORNING, 15.3N 141.2W SAT AFTERNOON, 16.0N
143.1W SUN MORNING, 16.8N 145.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 17.7N 147.2W
MON MORNING. KIKO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 19.7N 151.5W EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL
SIGNFICANTLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING AS KIKO'S
STRONG WINDS MOVE WEST OF THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST N OF THE MONSOON AND W OF 110W SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REACH NEAR
117W BY SUN MORNING, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF THE
MONSOON AND SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES A
WESTWARD TRACK.
RAMOS
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