134
WTPZ41 KNHC 051446 CCA
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST FRI SEP 05 2025
CORRECTED KEY MESSAGE FOR KIKO
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE EYE OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS EMANATING
FROM THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE T6.0/115 KT AND T5.0/90 KT. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES,
INCLUDING ADT FROM UW-CIMSS, ARE A BIT ON THE LOWER END OF THE
SPREAD BETWEEN 90-100 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 100 KTS
AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
KIKO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 285
DEGREES, AT 8 KT. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS ERODING BY A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS KIKO MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST EARLY
ON IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BEFORE BEING ADJUSTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LEADS TO CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY WHICH COULD INDUCE
A JOG TO THE RIGHT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HCCA
CONSENSUS.
KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27–28C FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS,
WHILE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A DRIER THAN OPTIMAL MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT KEEPING THE STORM SIZE SMALLER THAN AVERAGE. DESPITE
THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS KIKO WILL BE MOVING THROUGH, THE OTHER
FACTORS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, SO
THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS A LITTLE SHORT-TERM
STRENGTHENING. THIS FORECAST ALSO FITS IN WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
KIKO TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS WHICH COULD KEEP IT STRONGER
THAN THE FORECAST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER, KIKO WILL MOVE
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND AN EVEN DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND, IN SPITE OF THE VERY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATERS BELOW
26 C AWAIT KIKO'S TRACK AFTER MONDAY, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING STEADILY TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY
WEDNESDAY, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY THE NEARBY DRY AIR GETS IMPORTED
INTO KIKO'S SMALL CORE. THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY CYCLE, BUT REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEN TRENDS CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ENVELOPE BY MONDAY, AND THEN
TRENDS LOWER AS KIKO SHOULD CONVECTIVELY SPUTTER WHILE MOVING VERY
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN AS A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN
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