946
AXPZ20 KNHC 051524
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE KIKO: HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT
05/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100
KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 32 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
135W AND 140W. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO COULD BEGIN
REACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HONOLULU, HAWAII.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST KIKO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 16N WITH AXIS NEAR 105W,
MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 16N109W, THEN RESUMES
SW OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FROM 17N119W TO 15N131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY AND E OF 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA IS ANALYZED NEAR 24.5N
115.0W, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT, AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND S OF CABO SAN
LAZARO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF LORENA
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
AND SLIGHT WINDS N OF 28N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW RELATED TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LORENA WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY, AND WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AS WELL AS THE S AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH LATE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE,
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM COASTAL
COLOMBIA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA N OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NW OF THE AREA COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 125W.
THE RIDGE SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103W IS SUPPORTING FRESH SW WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO IS NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 8 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 962 MB. KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.5N 138.5W THIS EVENING,
15.0N 140.3W SAT MORNING, 15.7N 142.2W SAT EVENING, 16.4N 144.2W
SUN MORNING, 17.5N 146.2W SUN EVENING, AND 18.5N 148.4W MON
MORNING. KIKO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.7N 152.8W
BY EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING AS KIKO'S STRONG WINDS MOVE
W OF THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF THE
MONSOON AND W OF 110W SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REACH NEAR 120W BY SUN
MORNING, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF THE MONSOON AND
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK.
ERA
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