547
AXPZ20 KNHC 052146
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE KIKO: HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 137.8W AT
05/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115
KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 32 FT, AND IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING BEGINS ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE KIKO COULD BEGIN REACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST KIKO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 105W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N131W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA ARE ANALYZED NEAR
24N115W, WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE ONGOING N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND S OF CABO SAN LAZARO
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND SLIGHT WINDS N OF 28N. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WILL
CONTINUE SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS E OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AS WELL AS THE S AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH LATE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THUS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE,
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM COASTAL
COLOMBIA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA N OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE KIKO.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NW OF THE AREA COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 125W.
THE RIDGE SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103W IS SUPPORTING FRESH SW WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE KIKO WILL MOVE TO 14.9N 139.1W SAT
MORNING, 15.6N 141.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 16.3N 143.0W SUN MORNING,
17.2N 145.0W SUN AFTERNOON, 18.2N 147.0W MON MORNING, AND 19.4N
149.1W MON AFTERNOON. KIKO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER
21.7N 153.5W BY TUE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING AS KIKO'S
STRONG WINDS MOVE W OF THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST N OF THE MONSOON AND W OF 110W SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REACH
NEAR 120W BY SUN MORNING, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF
THE MONSOON AND SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES A
WESTWARD TRACK.
ERA
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