906
WTPZ41 KNHC 060237
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST FRI SEP 05 2025
KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE
EYE IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGE RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, AND
THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ON A STRUCTURE MORE TYPICAL OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. A GMI MICROWAVE PASS FROM 2224 UTC CONFIRMED A SYMMETRIC
INNER-CORE WITH A COMPLETE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE AS HIGH AS 122 KT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH
T6.0/115 KT. BLENDING THE HIGHER OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 120 KT.
KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII IS
HELPING TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH KIKO EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
NEAR THE HCCA CONSENSUS AND ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER, A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD BRING KIKO CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND. HISTORICALLY,
CYCLONES APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST CAN SLOW AND
DEFLECT NORTHWARD AS THE ISLAND TERRAIN DISRUPTS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ALTERS THE STEERING CURRENTS.
KIKO SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12–24 HOURS
WHILE TRAVERSING 26–27 C WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE MAY ALLOW IT TO RESIST WEAKENING LONGER
THAN TYPICAL GUIDANCE, DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT IN
THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS. BEYOND 48 HOURS, A COMBINATION OF COOLER
WATERS, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT WILL LIKELY INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS KIKO ABOVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
AIDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
2. SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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