517
AXPZ20 KNHC 060406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0320 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE KIKO: MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N
138.7W AT 06/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 33 FT, AND
IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM,
EXCEPT FOR 90 NM WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W. KIKO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY SAT MORNING. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY SUNDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KIKO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N WITH AXIS NEAR 106W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 16N110W TO 14N128W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION FROM KIKO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 96W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODOERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 15N
BETWEEN 115W AND 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA ARE ANALYZED AS A
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE W OF CABO SAN LAZARO NEAR 24N115W. THIS LOW
IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO
AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
ARE ONGOING E OF THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN 24N AND 27N. SEAS ARE
MODERATE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF LORENA WILL DISSIPATE SAT
NIGHT NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 106W WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING
MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES SAT. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA MON EVENING INTO WED AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PULSE IN
TEHUANTEPEC MON AND TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE,
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN GUATEMALA
AND NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE KIKO.
HURRICANE KIKO IS NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB.
ASIDE FROM KIKO, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N148W COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 124W. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 27N139W. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER N TO NE WINDS N OF 20N
AND W OF 120W. MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 106W IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, KIKO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 140.1W SAT MORNING,
16.1N 142.0W SAT EVENING, 16.9N 143.9W SUN MORNING, 17.8N 145.9W
SUN EVENING, 19.0N 148.0W MON MORNING, AND 20.2N 150.2W MON
EVENING. KIKO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.4N 154.8W
LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE
ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING AS KIKO'S STRONG WINDS MOVE W OF
THE AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF THE MONSOON
AND W OF 110W SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REACH NEAR 120W BY SUN MORNING,
ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF THE MONSOON AND SUPPORTING
ROUGH SEAS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK.
RAMOS
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